Covid- 19 Economy: After More Than A Year into Covid-19, What’s Next?
3 Key Predictions
1. From Pandemic to Endemic
i. As we had said back in Sept 2020, Covid-19 is here to stay, just like the flu
ii. Expect more variants / strains and therefore more waves to come
iii. And like flu jabs, we will have to continue to take vaccine booster shots
iv. But unlike the soothsayers, we see earlier-than-expected advancements on 3 battle fronts against Covid: preventatives, diagnostics and treatments, thanks to the availability of funding and government support
v. Case in point: our client is developing a topical spray which contains 6 antibodies that have been proven effective against certain strains – the neutralizing antibodies in the preventative application will be used to coat the mucous membrane of the upper airway to block infection by the virus
2. Travel Bubbles and Vaccine Passports
i. International travel will continue to be restricted, probably well into 2023
ii. The key here is how soon countries can achieve herd immunity (defined as when 75% of the population is vaccinated) – the Covax plan will also help
iii. In the interim, there will be travel bubbles as early as 2H 2021, starting with USA, Australia, NZ, Singapore, Hong Kong, while those with vaccine passports (i.e. those duly vaccinated) will be able to travel without having to be quarantined
3. Inflation is Transitionary
i. Main causes: supply chain bottlenecks (production disruptions last year didn’t help) and “surging” demand as markets and countries open up (coupled with ongoing government stimulus and handouts, extra savings from less travel and holidays, and pent-up demand during lockdowns)
ii.Post-Covid, we have bigger problems but that’s a different issue i.e. Capital Letters Issue No. 2 week of 12th July